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In case you haven’t heard, according to figures released recently, China has surpassed Japan as the world’s second economic power, its GDP now second only to that of the United States.

The most straightforward estimate we’ve been able to find so far is this Global Economics Paper published by Goldman Sachs (GS) in March 2007. Although more than three years old, its predictions are strikingly accurate. The paper compares, side by side, GDP estimates for 22 countries in five-year increments, starting with actual figures for 2006 and going through 2050. It estimates China’s GDP in 2010 at $4.667 trillion, compared with $4.604 trillion for Japan.

As for the question we posed above, the answer is 2030: by then, China’s GDP will be $25.61 trillion, according to Goldman’s paper, while that of the United States will be $22.817 trillion.

Read more here.

For a visual presentation of GDP growth over the next 40 years, take a look at our interactive infographic above.

For more details, as well as per capita GDP numbers, be sure to check out the Global Economics Paper yourself.

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